El Niño outlook raises drought and flood risks for Ethiopian agriculture

A strengthening El Niño is creating sharply different agricultural risks across Ethiopia, with prolonged rainfall deficits affecting central and northern areas while eastern and southern regions face the prospect of excessive rain and flooding later in 2026.

A Food Security and Nutrition Working Group special report published in the week ending August 22 says western and eastern parts of Ethiopia have experienced below-average rainfall, while central and northern areas have endured extended dry conditions. The assessment says rainfall in widespread areas of central and northern Ethiopia was below 60 percent of normal between June 1 and late August, including the forecast period used in the analysis.

The report links the rainfall shortfall to delayed planting, weak germination, reduced planting and crop wilting in northern Ethiopia. Lower river, reservoir and groundwater recharge could also constrain household water supplies, livestock production and irrigation. In pastoral areas, worsening pasture and water availability may reduce milk output and household income and increase livestock movement.

Conditions could shift during the October-to-December rainy season. Strong El Niño episodes are commonly associated with above-normal rain in the eastern sector of the region, increasing the chance of wetter conditions in eastern and southern Ethiopia. That could replenish water sources and improve pasture, but it also raises the risk of deaths, displacement, crop losses and damage to roads and other infrastructure from flooding.

The working group said the current El Niño is expected to strengthen in the coming months and persist into early 2027. It warned that reduced harvests, weaker livestock productivity and greater reliance on markets could worsen household food consumption and child nutrition, particularly if dry-season losses are followed by disruptive floods.